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crlarsen

FUT addict since FUT 12. A master of economic science and data analysis professional. @c_r_larsen

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29 Comments

  1. 1

    Peter

    Lewandowski price 1200 ????

    Reply
    1. 1.1

      AlgeriaWillWinTheWC

      I’m guessing these are fut14 prices because sturridge doesn’t go for 1200 either

      Reply
      1. 1.1.1

        Crlarsen

        PS4 prices but the lower table was incorrect. Is updated now.

        Reply
    2. 1.2

      Crlarsen

      A bug. The top table is correct

      Reply
  2. 2

    M

    I can tell you what stat makes no difference – passing. Especially in corners. Heading as well. For some reason, I always find my smallest, weakest player isolated in the 6 yards box at corners surrounded by 7 defenders. And a lot of the time he’ll score. Heading makes no difference. The amount of headers from corners I’ve scored with mertens, allesandrini is ridiculous. And passing – if passing truly made a difference, you wouldn’t get goalkeepers who repeatedly do pinpoint lob through balls from 60 yards.

    Reply
    1. 2.1

      waywayne

      this is because of scripting!

      Reply
      1. 2.1.1

        Crlarsen

        Or some other bad excuse

        Reply
        1. 2.1.1.1

          M

          If it isn’t scripting, it still shows that the passing stat is irrelevant. You can easily recreate the same conditions by using the same teams and get corners repeatedly with your friend. Try corners with the best crosser in your team then 100 corners with a gk. You would think someone with 25 passing wouldn’t get the ball in the box half the time, never mind land it on the head of the isolated striker in the 6-yard box. I would guess the results would show that both would give the same number of goals. It’s unfortunate that the game tries to give beginners a chance by making the game behave unexpectedly, so as not to put them off and deprive EA of their money. It’s not about rewarding skill for them, why would that interest them? All about the profits.

          Reply
          1. 2.1.1.1.1

            Crlarsen

            I do not agree that passing is irrelevant.

            First and foremost, passing is not just crosses and corners. Short passing and long passing may account for 95 % of all passes in the game.

            Second, I do agree that corners and crosses have become a lot less effective when compared to FIFA 14, which was widely – and in my opinion also righfully – critized ,because corners, crosses and headers were far too effective.

            Short passing is a key stat to me. To get a better feeling about it’s impact, look at this experiment (or even repeat it for yourself): https://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/2014/12/11/worst-full-chemistry-squads/

            Although short passing is a key stat to me, it’s important to state that successful passing is very much up to the player.

            “It’s unfortunate that the game tries to give beginners a chance by making the game behave unexpectedly, so as not to put them off and deprive EA of their money. It’s not about rewarding skill for them, why would that interest them? All about the profits.”

            The game does not try to give beginners a chance by making the game behave unexpectedly.

          2. M

            I don’t understand why you would link me to that experiment, where you use the worst team in the game and get probably the same percentage passing completion rate as pretty much everyone that uses a really good team. Proving my point.

          3. Crlarsen

            Not really. From the conclusion of the article:

            “The most notable shortcoming of my bronze players above is in the passing play. It simply takes longer to move the ball around. The passes are remarkably slower than usual, but on top of that, the midfielders have poor ball control, meaning that it takes more time and space to get the ball under control in order to pass it onwards. Additionally, your team mates won’t move into position as fast and as often as usual. All three aspects mean that it’s a lot easier for the opponent to cut off your passing lanes, move in for a tackle on the player in possession or perhaps just intercept.

            Although the shortcomings in passing quality didn’t impact my passing accuracy as such, it certainly did impact the number of decisive passes I was able to make. I usually pass the ball around until the opening appears, but with such slow passing, the opponent has more time to react and more time to think, making it a lot harder to make that decisive pass.”

            The point is that a high passing completion rate doesn’t imply that the passing quality was great. Passing quality is not just about maintaining possession but also creating chances. In this case, I was allowed to pass the ball around, because the opponents were unable to put any pressure on my players, but I still found it visibly harder to make the decisive passes.

            If I get the time, I will consider doing a similar analysis with regards to passing and assists-per-match, which is the only other performance stat available. This will clearly demonstrate that passing is far from irrelevant.

  3. 3

    Fenasi

    Interesting article. I found out that Positioning is a very underrated stat. In game stat though …

    Reply
  4. 4
    1. 4.1

      Crlarsen

      Not in the EA topscorer list, and hence not in the list above

      Reply
  5. 5

    Ucare

    For me Suarez has scored 38 goals in 15 matches, so even if the price drops I’M NOT SELLING!
    Same for Bale 26 goals in 15 matches!

    Reply
  6. 6

    theoddmanout

    did you take ragequitting into account? these stats are never 100% reliable

    Reply
    1. 6.1

      Crlarsen

      Why would that matter?

      Reply
      1. 6.1.1

        M

        The game could be over at 3-0 in 15 mins and they leave, meaning you could’ve had another 10 goals.

        Reply
        1. 6.1.1.1

          Crlarsen

          I don’t see how that would impact any of the conclusions above.

          Reply
          1. 6.1.1.1.1

            theoddmanout

            well…unless i completely misunderstand what this analysis is based on..in that case, pardon me

            “The data we will use is goals-per-match data collected from cards currently up for sale”

            so imagine Mr Freckel just built himself a team with tevez as his star striker. He challenges you for a single online match and he gets his ass kicked horribly. After 8 minutes he leaves the game, being down 0-12. he repeats that procedure 16 times because he is.. not such a smart guy 🙂
            So this tevez card says: 17 matches – 0 goals.
            Now imagine that the world champion fifa buys that same tevez from the transfer market to play some serie a tournaments or whatever…scoring 12 times per game with that same tevez card…i’m sure you know where i’m going with this?

          2. Crlarsen

            I don’t know how these data are recorded on each card, but I would be really surprised if the game recorded the increase in the number of played games for the player but not the goals he had scored.

            No matter what, this is Hardly an issue here, unless the percentage of rage quits for some reason is significantly larger for player x than for player y. This is hardly the case as long as we are dealing with averages accross hundreds if cards. Remember, the data is not collected for a single Tevez but accross hundreds of Tevez’es.

  7. 7

    Guestyguest

    I admire your attempt but you have So many other factors to account for here.Did you think of online vs offline goals? I’ve bought aguero played 5 offline games and scored 15 goals with him the resold him for a 25k profit.
    Formations and skills of user will also have an overall bearing eg: for me Suarez in a 4-2-3-1 ST has scored 15 in 39 games Suarez in 4-1-2-1-2 as ST, scored 18 in 11 games.
    And you can’t forget loyalty. Eg: tevez packed (23goals in 10games vs tevez bought (11 goals in 15games) purely down to loyalty, the bought tevez didn’t get rolling till after the loyalty.
    One last factor- a users reliance on a prefered striker.. Eg: 2 strikers- Carroll plus aguero.. You are going to use aguero more to score your goals..

    Reply
    1. 7.1

      Crlarsen

      Thanks for your comments and relevant considerations.

      I fully agree that a lot of factors (other than the stats) will contribute to player performance on an individual level. You mention formation, online/offline matches and team mate quality. You could add position, skill of the human player, skill of the opponent and so on. [1]

      Although, you are completely right that these factors contribute to player performance on an *individual level*, they tend to even out when dealing with larger samples involving thousands of matches.

      In this case, we are in fact looking at the performance of *hundreds of Agueros* who together have played thousands of matches, including offline/online, different formations, different owners and different squads.

      When I compare different players, I basically assume that the Aguero’s –
      – *on average* don’t play significantly more offline matches than the Tevez’es
      – *on average* aren’t used by significantly better players than the Benzema’s
      – *on average* aren’t part of significantly better squads than the Costa’s
      – *on average* aren’t used in significantly more suitable formations than the Lukaku’s
      … and so on.

      Unless these assumption are wrong, we definitely can assume that the measured goal per match averages are a product of the player stats and not any of the biases above.

      [1] http://www.ultimateteam.co.uk/2014/10/08/fut-15-scripting-study-in-forms-worth-coins/

      Reply
  8. 8

    Mark

    Interesting that Mandzukic is not in the final list, when you have him in the top / spanish team?

    Reply
    1. 8.1

      Crlarsen

      I know this is confusing, but the second list only contains the players who already are on EA’s top scorer list. Neither Mandzukic, Messi or Ronaldo are on the La Liga topscorer list. The reason for that is that they aren’t as widely used as the alternatives, i.e. Benzema, Rodrigo, Dos Santos and Hernandez.

      Reply
  9. 9

    Mypkokot

    Prince Boateng 78.78 > Lewandowski, Kosta

    Reply
  10. 10

    That guy

    I’ve used Tevez and I can confidently say there are better strikers. He had my 3rd best goals per game ratio (32p, 27g). Second was Gio Dos Santos (42p, 44g). However Número Uno was a RF at striker Aubameyang (currently 27p,37g).

    Essentially, get Aubameyang.

    Reply
    1. 10.1

      Crlarsen

      With regards to who is the better striker, then obviously it’s a question of playing style as well. The mere fact that certain strikers suit the ‘average’ playing style well, does not necessarily imply that they are perfect for me and you as individuals.

      Having said that, I’m not quite sure whether you can conclude anything from the statistics you present.

      First, I assume you were using the three strikers as part of different squads. Hence, the results are affected by the quality of the surrounding team mates and formation. Although the quality of a striker at the end of the day depends on whether you can build a decent squad around him.

      Second, did you ensure that the difficulty level was kept constant by playing the same game mode in all 101 matches?

      Reply
  11. Pingback: Why the chemistry glitch isn’t handicapping - FUT facts

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